By Simbo Olorunfemi
There have been concerns about the process, conduct and outcome of the 2019 Elections. That is not unexpected, as the process of making the conduct of elections completely free and fair is still a work in progress here. Too many structural and inherent defects make the process a difficult one to birth a different outcome from what we have.
Indeed, some of the concerns are genuine, addressing flaws, lapses and misconduct here and there. Some stem from the over-reach by some powers, violence and loss of lives experienced in some places. But by and large, the elections were peaceful, fair and representative of the wishes of the majority of the electorate at different levels.
But as to be expected, a lot of what has masqueraded as concern and criticism by some are anything but genuine. The buckets of crocodile tears we have come from a place of disappointment with an outcome not in tune with wish or expectation than anything else.
A review of reports by independent observers tend towards a conclusion that this was a largely free and fair election, with outcome largely in tandem with preference and the much-hyped incidents of violence on the downward trend, in comparison with previous elections.
But what stands out the 2019 Election the most is how keen the contest has been at all levels, with the 2 major parties pulling their weight across many parts of the country. But for the Buhari factor which, in itself, is what gives the APC the edge, there is little to separate PDP and APC in many parts of the country.
The Presidential election was largely determined by the Buhari factor and the outcome of the Governorship elections in many of the states is evidence for those in doubt about the sophisticated voting pattern in parts of the country often ignorantly derided as a sheepish monolith, when for a fact, it is in the territory of the critics that one party has been on ground as a behemoth since 1999, even when there is little to show as dividend for its fanatical commitment to one party.
What many might not have realised, which in fact, is the most important thing to take away from the 2019 Election is that every vote counts. Critics and analysts might not have realised this, but the politicians came to that realisation by study and experiment, a while back. They know that the day of allocating figures, hijacking the collation process to simply overwrite outcomes from the polling booths is all but gone.
Following the 2015 Election and a rejigging of the accreditation requirement which made it difficult to arbitrarily discard the use of the card reader, politicians with ears to the ground had long smelt the coffee. The incidents of vote buying as witnessed in the stand-alone elections, the tendency to disrupt the process at the polling unit level and other actions are largely in response to the frustration that the present system has, in a way, checkmated them.
With the card reader logging in all accredited voters, one which cannot be tampered with at the unit level, it becomes difficult to engage in dumping, that is, mass thumb-printing ballot papers, as over-voting (recording higher number of voters than the number accredited) could lead to a cancellation of the results for affected areas.
It also becomes easier for a petitioner to establish and prove a case of electoral fraud, as a simple comparison of votes cast with the number of accredited voters can easily help in raising a red flag. So, the politician has come to the recognition that each vote counts and he has to fight for each vote. He fights for each vote, desperate to get it by hook or crook.
Rather than the old practice of operating largely at the wholesale level, a lot of premium has been forced on the politician to play at the retail level. That has both positive and negative effects as we have witnessed at this election. Whereas with money and/or intimidation, something can happen, there is a limit to what can be done with those tools, especially where the field is large.
A look at the Gubernatorial elections will tell you how keenly it has been fought. Incumbent parties lost in 6 of the 29 States in which Governorship election was conducted. In Kwara, an incumbent party was completely swept out of power along with a sitting Senate President.
In all, whereas APC won 2 states which were before now in the hands of the PDP, it lost 4 of the states it was in control of to the PDP. (The assumption here is that the yet to be announced results for Bauchi, Adamawa and Rivers will go to the PDP).
At the end of the day, it should mean that the APC will end up in control of 20 States as opposed to 22 it has now and PDP will end up with 15, two more than the 13 presently under its control. In
Then, this election has seen a number of sitting Governors struggle to retain their seats – Sokoto, Kano, Benue, Adamawa, Plateau, with Governors of one-party states such as Akwa Ibom, Delta for the first time and Rivers for the second time, forced to look over their shoulders. What played out in Oyo, Ondo and even Lagos is pregnant with multiple interpretations.
The point that is becoming more obvious is that the day of taking the voter for granted is under threat. The politicians know it. They know they are dealing with more sophisticated voters in many parts of the country.
If INEC will ensure that there is a uniform interpretation of its rules by Returning Officers and work on amendment of its rules such that the requirement which propels a re-run is based on accredited voters and not registered voters, the incident of inconclusive elections will reduce and the incentive to trigger cancellation will be less.
We have had a keenly contested election at all levels. In spite of the pockets of violence, outcomes have been largely as projected by those who did so with clear eyes. The major take-away is this – every vote counts. Aminu Tambuwwal is back courtesy of only 342 votes, controversial as that is, when placed side by side with the number of cancelled votes.
But however it swings, there is no better reminder that with the way we are going, every vote is beginning to really count.
