By Osa Director
Politics is in a frenzy state in Edo. Politicians are going cap in hand jostling for votes, in order to win the ultimate prize in Edo state politics and occupy Dennis Osadebey Avenue for the next four years, commencing from 12th November, 2024. Expectedly, the game comes with volumes of intrigues and horse trading.
The peculiar intrigues and horse trading are both amusing and threatening. Amusing for the comedy and entertainment it provides. The satire and comics, the brickbats and skulduggery are nerve wracking in funny ways.
However, the shocking and distasteful introduction of violence which has resulted in loss of lives in extreme cases is abominable, and has left a sour taste in the mouth of all those who cherish the true values and essence of democracy as a tool for national development.
Hence, as an incurable optimist and true believer in the building of a better Edo state where everyone can thrive within the best of his strength and abilities in an atmosphere of peace, the hope is that the governorship election will not be a do or die affair.
As the campaign winds down for the D-Day, it is pertinent to make political permutations from the observatory based on scientific research and verifiable data.
Unlike in the recent past when the race for Edo state top job was always a two ways affair, things are different now. The Saturday 21st September election is a three horse race. It is a fierce contestation for power by the ruling political party in the state, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the ruling party at the Federal level, All Progressives Congress, APC and Labour Party, LP.
Asue Ighodalo is the candidate of the PDP, Monday Okpebholo is the APC candidate, while Olumide Akpata is the Labour Party candidate.
Doing a breezy SWOT analysis (strength, weakness, opportunity and Threat) of the candidates, it could be said that Ighodalo is a lawyer and corporate player who has been involved in board room politics. He was also a member of the Economic Advisory team of immediate past Governor Adams Oshiomhole and present Governor Godwin Obaseki. He is said to be the force behind the yearly Economic summit by Edo state government tagged, Alaghodaro summit which was strangely disclosed recently by him to be a Non Governmental Organization, NGO. This runs against the public perception that it was purely an Edo state government project.
Not a few believe that Ighodalo is a new comer in politics. Also, the growing clamour for a “Home Boy”who knows and lives with the people is a minus to him. Perhaps, his greatest strength is ironically his albatross. His sponsor and political godfather who ensured that he got the PDP ticket, Gov. Obaseki is also his greatest liability. He is unfortunately forced to inherit the liabilities and even political enemies of the outgoing governor that are so legion and numerous to recount.
For Okpebholo, the APC candidate is a serving Senator representing Edo Central senatorial district. He is said to be a protege of former Edo state political godfather and Mr. Fix-it, late Chief Tony Anenih. He was inherited by the current political Generalissimo and numero uno of Edo state politics, Pastor Osagie Ize Iyamu as a political godson. He is also credited with philanthropy, and said to be a very humble man.
However, the dominant narrative in the media space is that he is not articulate and his intellectual capacity brought to question. Sadly, the APC has not done much to offer a counter narrative.
Akpata, the Labour Party candidate’s claim to national prominence was his two year tenure as president of the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA between 2020 and 2022. He is said to have a vibrant legal practice in Commercial law and Arbitration.
As a result of his relative newness in the political space many are still unsure of the constancy of his pedigree. Also, the Obidient movement wave that he hopes to ride upon has faded largely for two reasons. One, Peter Obi, the man whom the movement is wrapped around is not on the ballot. Two, politicians have cleverly divided the Obidient movement to the extent that some prominent members of the group call themselves PDP Obidient and others APC Obidient for the purposes of Edo state governorship election.
Beyond the candidates credentials, the voting pattern in the state will largely determine who wins the ultimate trophy. The three senatorial districts in Edo state are Edo North, Edo Central and Edo South senatorial districts. The total number of local government areas are 18.
Edo North is made up of six Local Government Areas. Despite the abrasive and garrulous politics of Oshiomhole he has in the last 12 years dominated the politics of the zone. Not even in the heydays of Philip Shaibu as deputy governor and Dan Orbih’s vibrant opposition were they able to defeat Oshiomhole in the zone. Things are even looking better now that the three political gladiators are in one accord to deliver the senatorial district to APC.
Consequently, APC is expected to win at least five of the Local Government Areas, LGA. The only possible exception would be Akoko-Edo LGA. The people may want to say thank you to Obaseki for picking their son as a replacement to Shaibu as deputy governor, even though that choice has been voided by the Appeal Court.
Five LGAs constitute Edo Central senatorial district. The candidates of the PDP and APC are both from the zone. But a clear advantage is obviously in favour of the APC candidate, Okpebholo as he is a serving Senator. The political machine he used in less than 18months ago to win the senatorial seat is still intact. Therefore, he will rev it into full motion. Additionally, the APC have more Federal House of Representatives members who are duty bound to deliver their constituencies. Hence, APC will certainly win four of the LGAs. The only one to be won by PDP is the LG that Ighodalo hails from.
The largest senatorial district, Edo South populated by over 55% of the voters in the state is the key battleground. It has always been the deciding factor in Edo state governorship election, and it will not be different this time around.
There are seven LGAs in Edo South senatorial district. The deputy governorship candidate of the APC, Dennis Idahosa, who is a serving member of the Federal House of Representatives hails from Ovia constituency which has two local government areas. Idahosa might not be a vocal person on the floor of the National Assembly, but he is regarded as a pragmatic politician and quiet achiever who delivers on his constituency projects. The two time member of the House is called Mr. Projects by his admirers. It is taken for granted that he will convincingly win the two LGAs. Most especially as he has now been joined by Omosede Igbinedion, a daughter of the Igbinedion household who was also a former member of the House of Representatives.
Left with five LGAs remaining, the Generalissimo of Edo state politics, often referred to as game changer and sagacious political mobilizer, Pastor Osagie Ize Iyamu hails from Orhionmwon LG, just as Chief Pius Odubu, the former deputy governor under Oshiomhole. They will surely win the LG for the APC.
Uhunmwode LG is another heavily populated LG in rural Edo state. It is a possible swing LG. But the presence of vibrant young political aficionado like Washington Osifo, Samson Osagie, former minority leader of the House of Representatives and current serving member of the House of Representatives, Billy Osawaru in collaboration with the young elder statesman, Charles Idahosa, the APC is better positioned to win it.
The fierce battleground are the densely populated three LG areas in the metropolis, namely Oredo, Ikpoba-okha and Egor.
Oredo which is at the heart of Benin City is where Labour Party has its ardent supporters. However, the three leading parties can successfully lay claim to the LG. Curiously, the PDP would appear to lose more of it supporters to LP. In essence, PDP’s loss would serve as APC’s gain. Gov. Obaseki votes in Benin and he has never convincingly won the LG in any election. The departure of a two term House of Representatives member, Ogbeide Ihama to pitch tent with APC, in combination with the political foot soldiers of Hon. Patrick Obahiagbon, a.k.a Igodomigodo and immediate past Senator representing Edo South, Mathew Uroghide could see APC in a ding dong race with LP to win Oredo.
Osarodion Ogie, the deputy governorship candidate of PDP who has been a Chief of staff, Commissioner of Works and until recently, Secretary to State Government, has held the LG under his vice grips for almost 16 years. Hence, he is bound to swing it in favour of PDP. But the LP party will slice a chunk of the votes as the APC waits in tow to reap.
Egor LG may go the way of LP. But the APC and PDP are in tough running for it too. It might end up been evenly split between the three political parties.
Conclusively, the APC will win the governorship election with at least 13 Local Government Areas out of the 18 in the state. It will win at least five LGAS in Edo North, four in Edo Central and a minimum of four in Edo South.
Predictably, the APC will seat pretty in Osadebey Avenue come 12th November, 2024 no thanks to the last minute desperate talks, faux pas and do or die pronouncements of Governor Obaseki, in addition to his innumerable baggage of the past.
Osa, is a journalist, lawyer and public commentator.
